The global derivatives industry gathered in Chicago last week for the Futures Industry Association (FIA) Expo conference, where it is clear that capital markets are undergoing a significant transformation.
What began with the emergence of distributed ledger technology (DLT) and cryptocurrencies has evolved into a new generation of financial markets. Today, innovation extends well beyond digital assets, with prediction markets, perpetual futures and even artificial intelligence (AI) compute emerging as new opportunities for market participants.
As these markets develop, they are attracting new participants, creating new products and challenging traditional approaches to trading, investing and risk management.
Recognizing this evolution, FIA introduced two educational tracks at this year’s conference. The Evolution of the Futures Markets track was designed for investors beginning their journey into derivatives, while the Prediction Markets track explored how market structure and product design differ from traditional futures contracts.
Prediction Markets: Turning Information Into Opportunity
Prediction markets allow participants to trade on the outcomes of real-world events.
During a discussion with FIA’s Global Head of Market Intelligence Will Acworth, independent prediction market trader Bethany Vodicka shared how she first became interested in the space around President Donald Trump’s re-election in 2024.
She observed that in the run-up to the elections, Kalshi priced Trump’s chances of winning at approximately 53%, while Polymarket had him at 47%. That difference seemed like a trading opportunity, and it sparked her interest in prediction markets.
Rather than simply wagering on an outcome, Vodicka explained that she focuses on opportunities for arbitrage across similar contracts with slightly different prices. In some cases, differences in how outcomes are defined are not fully priced into the market, creating opportunities for people who examine the fine print.
Vodicka does most of her trading in sports-related markets, but one of her recent interests has been entertainment-related trading, including the Country Music Awards scheduled to air on November 18.
The conversation also highlighted an important question facing the industry, which is how should these emerging markets be regulated?
During his opening remarks at the conference, FIA President Walt Lukken echoed the need for thoughtful market development and responsible innovation. He acknowledged the conference’s growing focus on emerging markets and emphasized that clear rules and strong market structures are essential to building trust.
“Market structure is relevant and rules need to be clear,” Lukken said. “If people don’t trust the markets, they are not going to come.”
One of the more interesting discussions centered on the economic purpose of prediction market contracts.
Traditional derivatives have long served as tools for managing financial risk. For example, a weather futures contract could help a business protect itself against the financial impact of a storm, potentially offering a more cost-effective alternative to traditional insurance.
But what happens when the contract is tied to something like Taylor Swift’s next tour date?
“When you get into specifics, for economic activity, it will look like a futures contract,” Lukken said. “For things that are not economic activity, will additional customer protections be needed?”
As prediction markets continue to expand into politics, entertainment, sports and other areas of everyday life, the industry will need to balance innovation with appropriate customer protections and regulatory clarity.
The Emergence of AI Compute as an Asset Class
The second day of the FIA conference turned its attention to another emerging opportunity in AI compute markets.
AI compute refers to the processing power, hardware and/or infrastructure required to develop and operate artificial intelligence models. As demand for AI accelerates, the cost and availability of this computing capacity are becoming increasingly important considerations for businesses.
Data centers, hyperscalers and neocloud providers are among the companies that could benefit from futures contracts and other derivatives designed to manage their exposure to AI compute prices.
FIA featured a panel of compute index providers, including Compute Desk, Silicon Data, Ornn and NativX. These companies are developing pricing benchmarks and partnering with traditional financial exchanges to bring AI compute derivatives into both listed and over-the-counter (OTC) markets.
While the panel reminded everyone that big numbers don’t mean a liquid market, the opportunity is big. According to Goldman Sachs, global investment in AI infrastructure is forecasted to exceed $1 trillion in 2026, with approximately $581 billion coming from the United States alone.
The scale of the opportunity was further illustrated by Andrawes Bahou, Chief Executive Officer of Compute Desk.
“To put things in perspective, there were about 5 hyperscalers trading physical compute about 5 years ago,” Bahou said. “That number has grown to about 500 companies with a proliferation of natural buyers, sellers, brokers and people in the market.”
As the market expands, companies will increasingly need tools to manage the financial risks associated with computing costs. This is where derivatives can play an important role.
Much like energy companies use futures contracts to manage exposure to fluctuating electricity and natural gas prices, businesses that depend on AI infrastructure could use derivatives to hedge against changes in compute pricing.
Education will be critical to making this market accessible. The panelists emphasized the importance of helping new market participants understand how these products work and, more importantly, how to use them to manage their business exposure.
Several index providers are already working with established exchange operators to develop new products. Silicon Data has partnered with CME Group, Ornn has partnered with ICE, and Compute Desk is working with Nodal Exchange and Architect Exchange Group.
Following the index providers’ discussion, representatives from the exchanges took the stage to explore how the broader AI compute ecosystem could transition into the futures markets. Greater price transparency, standardized benchmarks and more sophisticated risk management tools could help support the development of this emerging asset class.
Brett Harrison, Chief Executive Officer of Architect, also highlighted a unique challenge that AI compute markets may face, which is the pace of technological innovation.
“AI moves a lot faster than derivatives and it’s a possibility that the underlying instrument may be updated or replaced as the standard, before a listed futures contract can be launched,” he said.
This raises an important question for exchanges and market participants. How do you create standardized financial contracts around an industry where the underlying technology is constantly changing?
The Next Chapter of Capital Markets
The derivatives industry is evolving rapidly, with new technologies, new participants and entirely new asset classes reshaping the financial landscape.
Prediction markets are changing how people interact with information and trade on future outcomes. AI compute is creating demand for new financial products that can help businesses manage the costs of an increasingly essential resource. The continued development of digital assets and blockchain technology is providing the foundation for even more innovation.
For investors and market participants, these developments represent more than just new trading opportunities. They signal a broader shift in how financial markets are structured, how risk is managed and where the next generation of market opportunities may emerge.
One thing is certain that the future of capital markets will look very different from the past.







