Contributed by Beth Collinge of CTG – a division of ILX Group plc.
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision revealed new capital requirements. The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged. Yields on peripheral eurozone bonds rose with renewed sovereign debt issuance. A Beige Book survey revealed economic growth mixed or slow in USA.
Economic Backdrop
- Global equity and oil prices made modest gains while core government bonds and gold eased back.
- Plans by Deutsche Bank to raise over €9bn unsettled the equity market on Friday ahead of the weekend’s Basel Committee on Banking Supervision summit, that set fresh capital requirements for the sector.
- This week there were also claims that July’s “stress tests” on Europe’s banks had understated some lenders’ holdings of potentially risky sovereign debt. The spread of peripheral government bond yields over German Bunds widened sharply in the early part of the week – to record levels in the cases of Portugal and Ireland – prompting fresh buying by the European Central Bank. Economic data from Germany appeared to suggest that the strong growth seen in the eurozone’s powerhouse in the second quarter of the year might be tailing off.
- The US Federal Reserve released its snapshot of the economy, which showed “widespread signs” of slowing in recent weeks. The Fed said in its Beige Book survey of businesses that three of the 12 districts questioned said economic growth was mixed or slow.
- The Bank of England left interest rates and the level of quantitative easing unchanged as expected, after recent economic signs pointed to a relatively robust recovery.
- During the week the euro ground against the dollar, and against the pound.
- The Canadian dollar was given an extra boost when the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 1 per cent after its policy meeting on Wednesday, but the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at its policy meeting on Tuesday, citing fears over a global slowdown.
- In commodities, oil was trading above $76 a barrel late on Friday, up from $74.60 a week earlier, although it eased back in choppy trading. Gold rose to within a whisker of its June record high of $1,265 but eased back to $1,247 as risk aversion faded.
- China’s trade surplus dropped in August after imports grew at a faster rate than expected, an indication that domestic demand could be rebounding after several months of slowdown.
- Beijing allowed its currency to appreciate by 0.5 per cent this week, taking the total increase in the value of the renminbi to 0.95 per cent since it abandoned the dollar peg in June.