Contributed by Beth Collinge of CTG – a division of ILX Group plc.

This week’s financial news was dominated by the following Europe’s debt crisis entering a new phase when EU finance ministers agreed an €85bn bail-out for Ireland and the outline of a permanent mechanism to deal with future debt crises; ECB bond buying steadying the euro markets; and mixed US data dampening recovery hopes.

Economic Backdrop

• At the beginning of the week, Eurozone ministers announced plans to replace the current €440bn rescue fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which was agreed after the Greek debt crisis, with a permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM). The ESM will be similar to the EFSF, except that private creditors could be involved in future debt relief or restructuring. Eurozone bonds issued after June 2013 will contain “collective action clauses”, which will enable a majority of creditors to pass legally binding decisions to change terms of payment, such as an extension of the maturity of bonds and “haircuts”, or discounts, on the price paid. The mechanism distinguishes a “solvency” crisis from a “liquidity” one, with bondholders in insolvent countries expected to share in the losses.
• At the same time the EU agreed the Irish bail-out, using the €750bn emergency funding system established after the Greek debt crisis in May. The Irish package totals €85bn, to which the IMF will contribute €22.5bn, Ireland will contribute €17.5bn and Europe will contribute €45bn. The latter will come from both the European Financial Stability Mechanism, a fund overseen by the commission and backed by the EU budget, and from the European Financial Stability Facility, backed by the 16 members of the eurozone. Bilateral loans have been promised by Sweden, Denmark and the UK. The UK will provide €3.84bn in bilateral loans, and will also contribute €3.1bn to the EFSM money, since British banks, particularly RBS, which is now largely state-owned, have very significant exposure to Ireland.
• The €85bn will be split: €50bn will provide funding for the Irish state and €35bn will go into the banking system. The initial capital injection into the banks will be €8bn, most of which will be divided up between the two largest banks: Allied Irish Banks and Bank of Ireland. They will also have access to €2bn of funds that will be used for loan portfolio protection, taking the total upfront support to €10bn. The banks will have a further €25bn of contingent capital that they can use to cover future losses on loans, to ensure their core tier one capital ratio remains above 10.5%.
• The European Central Bank (ECB) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at its regular policy meeting, as expected, and announced an extension of its full allotment of refinancing facilities until April next year. However, the central bank stopped short of announcing a major increase in its programme of unsterilised purchases of eurozone government bonds, as many in the markets had hoped for.
• Eurozone retail sales rose by 0.5% in October compared to the previous month. The highest monthly increase was logged in Germany, up 2.3%, with the highest annual improvement among all European Union states coming in Poland, which jumped by 12.8%.
• Unemployment across the eurozone crept up to 10.1% in October, according to Eurostat, as inflation held firm at 1.9% in November. The rise in the unemployment rate reflected an estimated 80,000 more people out of work in October. The highest rate, 20.7%, was seen in Spain, which the markets fear may soon need external financial assistance.
• Spain announced a number of measures to restore confidence in its solvency: it said it is on track to cut the budget deficit from 11.1% of gross domestic product in 2009 to 9.3% this year and 6% in 2011. Spain has raised tobacco tax, reduced wind power subsidies and brought forward pension reform. It will cut its new sovereign debt issuance by about a third next year compared with its original plans, and will privatise parts of the state lottery system and the airports authority.
• In the US the jobless rate rose to 9.8%, the highest since April, as only 39,000 jobs were added in November, far worse than forecast, and not fast enough to keep up with population growth. Though private sector employment rose by 50,000, there was a drop of 28,000 in the retail sector, and an 11,000 fall in government jobs. Average hourly earnings and the average work week – both important indicators of future hiring – were flat compared with October. Although the population continues to grow, the percentage of adult Americans with jobs fell to 58.2%, compared with pre-recession levels of about 63%. Payroll data are important because they give an up-to-date reading on what is happening in the labour market. The number of Americans with jobs and how much they are paid is a guide to how much they will consume, which, in turn, is an indication of how much the economy will grow. Orders placed with U.S. factories fell in October for the first time in four months, as demand for durable goods also slowed.
• Growth in UK service sector activity fell slightly in November, indicating a slowdown in overall fourth-quarter economic output and hence no change to monetary policy in the near future. Overall, the survey suggests the services sector is not expanding as quickly as the manufacturing sector, where activity picked up at its fastest pace in 16 years in November due in part to strong exports.
• Oil prices rose to their highest in more than two years as a result of very cold weather increasing demand, as consumers and electricity producers consume more oil. There is also increased demand in China, due to residents using diesel to generate power, in an unintended consequence of efforts to meet national energy and environmental targets.
  Commodity prices were higher across the board: copper neared record levels, and during the week gold rose above $1,400 an ounce, close to November’s nominal record high of $1,424.10.

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