Contributed by Beth Collinge of CTG – a division of ILX Group plc.
The US Federal Reserve confirmed a much-anticipated expansion of its asset purchase programme with a second round of quantitative easing – dubbed QE2 – when it said it would buy $600bn of longer-term Treasury securities by mid-2011. Interest rates rose in both Australia and India, while the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged.
Economic Backdrop
- Improving economic data from the US, China and the UK were released this week.
- America’s economy grew by an annualised rate of 2% in the third quarter, according to the first official estimate, up from 1.7% in the second quarter. Consumer spending, the biggest component of demand in America, also rose again but still at a much slower rate than after previous deep recessions. Data from the Institute for Supply Management, also showed the manufacturing sector growing faster, as the PMI rose from 54.4 in September to 56.9 in October. Factory goods orders climbed by 2.1 per cent in September, the biggest increase since January.
- The US jobs market showed signs of improvement in October, with total non-farm payrolls (which excludes public sector workers) rising by 151,000, higher than the 70,000 increase expected. The unemployment rate, however, remained at 9.6 per cent for the third consecutive month.
- In Europe, the UK also published strong PMI figures. It reported a rise from 53.5 to 54.9, suggesting that growth was unlikely to slow further this year. ‘Flash’ indicators from the eurozone last month also showed an improvement in business activity among manufacturers, especially in Germany.
- The European Central Bank (ECB) left its monetary policy unchanged on Thursday and Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, made relatively hawkish comments. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan also left interest rates unchanged.
- The official PMI measure released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, rose to a six-month high of 54.7 in October from 53.8 in September, beating economists’ expectations of a slowdown. Indian manufacturing PMI data were also strong.
- Investors have started putting money back into equity funds in the US and Europe in a tentative sign of risk appetite increasing. Last week, global equity and commodity prices reached multi-month peaks. The FT 100 finished at a 29-month high, and the S&P 500 reached a two-year high. Gold soared to an all-time nominal high of $1,397.85 a troy ounce – up 2.9 per cent on the week. Silver, platinum, palladium and copper hit their highest prices in years. The rubber price has tripled in two years and major tyre companies have raised their prices by 5-15 per cent. Orange juice prices reached their highest point in three years, after news that the Brazilian orange crop will fall, and sugar is at 30-year high, also due to forecast reduced crops. Oil touched its highest level since 2008.
- Over the week, the dollar dropped 0.9 per cent to $1.4079 against the euro and lost 1.2 per cent to $1.6240 against the pound. The Australian dollar surged through parity against the US dollar to hit its highest level since it was floated in 1983, when the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75 per cent after its policy meeting on Tuesday.